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Iron ore demand is difficult to rapidly increase the late price still have downward space

Demand for iron ore weakened in March as steel production fell. Iron ore prices in mid-early march high run, late shock downward trend. Relative to the obvious decline in steel prices, iron ore prices are still in high volatility, the overall level is still high, there is still room to go down in the later stage.

China's iron ore price index fell from its highs

According to the steel association monitoring, at the end of march, China's iron ore price index (CIOPI) was 309.24 points, down 2.06 points, or 0.66%. Among them, the domestic iron ore price index was 319.94 points, down 4.91 points, or 1.51%. The price index of imported iron ore was 307.22 points, down 1.52 points or 0.49% month-on-month (fluctuation increased in the first half of the month, fluctuation decreased in the second half of the month).

For the whole month, the average CIOPI composite index was 323.30 points in March, up 7.24 points or 2.29% from February. Among them, the average domestic iron ore price index is 322.24 points, up 0.90 points from February, or 0.28%. The average price index for imported iron ore was 323.50 points, up 8.44 points or 2.68 per cent from February.

The prices of imported powder and domestic iron concentrate fluctuated downward

At the end of march, the tax-inclusive price of CIOPI domestic iron concentrate was 703.64 / ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 10.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.51%. The cif price of CIOPI imported ore was $82.98 / ton, down $0.41 / ton or 0.49% month-on-month.

From the whole month, the average tax-inclusive price of domestic iron concentrate was 708.71 yuan/ton, up 1.98 yuan/ton from February, an increase of 0.28%. The average cif price of imported ore was $87.38 / ton, up $2.28 / ton from February, or 2.68%.

Later ore prices still have downward space

Although the covid-19 epidemic in China has been effectively controlled, it will still take some time before the steel demand fully recovers. It is difficult for the demand for iron ore to increase rapidly, and there is still room for the later price to fall.

Steel output fell slightly, iron ore demand intensity reduced. According to the statistics of xunnewspaper of the steel association, in the early and middle of march, the daily crude steel output of member steel enterprises was 1.8423 million tons, decreasing by 4.93% month-on-month. It is estimated that the national daily crude steel output is 2,492,400 tons, decreasing by 3.33%. Later steel production is expected to remain at a low level, iron ore demand intensity has decreased.

Port inventory of imported iron ore declined slightly and remained stable. Since last October, the inventory of imported iron ore ports has basically remained at the level of 117 million tons ~ 128 million tons. At the end of march, imported iron ore port inventories were 117 million tons, down 4.75 million tons or 4.06 percent month-on-month, basically stable.

Steel prices continue to fall, iron ore prices high volatility. According to the steel association monitoring, in March, China's steel price index (CSPI) average is 97.52 points, down 1.06 points, a drop of 1.07%. The price of imported iron ore in the same period was $87.38 / ton, up $2.28 / ton or 2.68%. Iron ore prices are still relatively high, and the trend of steel prices diverge, the late still have downward space.